IEA Says the Party’s Over (PCI knew this a long time)

THE REPORTS

In February 2013, Post Carbon Institute and Energy Policy Forum released two ground-breaking reports that belie energy industry claims of U.S. energy independence as a result of newly accessible shale gas and shale (tight) oil. The report findings are based on an unprecedented analysis of over 60,000 U.S. shale oil and gas wells and an investigation of the role of Wall Street investment banks in the explosive growth of fracking for natural gas.



DRILL, BABY, DRILL

The most comprehensive analysis to date of the prospects for shale gas, shale oil (tight oil), and other unconventional fuels.

SHALE & WALL STREET

Uncovers the role of Wall St. investment banks in promoting the shale gas drilling frenzy and related drop in natural gas prices.

www.shalebubble.org

- IEA Says the Party’s Over: http://www.resilience.org/stor...

Excerpt:

"The International Energy Agency has just released a new special report called “World Energy Investment Outlook” that should send policy makers screaming and running for the exits—if they are willing to read between the lines and view the report in the context of current financial and geopolitical trends. This is how the press agency UPI begins its summary:

It will require $48 trillion in investments through 2035 to meet the world’s growing energy needs, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday from Paris. IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement the reliability and sustainability of future energy supplies depends on a high level of investment. “But this won’t materialize unless there are credible policy frameworks in place as well as stable access to long-term sources of finance,” she said. “Neither of these conditions should be taken for granted.”

Here’s a bit of context missing from the IEA report: the oil industry is actually cutting back on upstream investment. Why? Global oil prices—which, at the current $90 to $110 per barrel range, are at historically high levels—are nevertheless too low to justify tackling ever-more challenging geology. The industry needs an oil price of at least $120 per barrel to fund exploration in the Arctic and in some ultra-deepwater plays. And let us not forget: current interest rates are ultra-low (thanks to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing), so marshalling investment capital should be about as easy now as it is ever likely to get. If QE ends and if interest rates rise, the ability of industry and governments to dramatically increase investment in future energy production capacity will wane.

Other items from the report should be equally capable of inducing policy maker freak-out:

The shale bubble’s-a-poppin’. In 2012, the IEA forecast that oil extraction rates from US shale formations (primarily the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas) would continue growing for many years, with America overtaking Saudia Arabia in rate of oil production by 2020 and becoming a net oil exporter by 2030. In its new report, the IEA says US tight oil production will start to decline around 2020. One might almost think the IEA folks have been reading Post Carbon Institute’s analysis of tight oil and shale gas prospects! www.shalebubble.org This is a welcome dose of realism, though the IEA is probably still erring on the side of optimism: our own reading of the data suggests the decline will start sooner and will probably be steep."

The e-book SNAKE OIL:

- SNAKE OIL: How Fracking's False Promise of Plenty Imperils Our Future - Introduction:http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 6 - Energy Reality: http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 5 - The Economics of Fracking: Who Benefits?:http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 4 - Fracking Wars, Fracking Casualties:http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 3 - A Treadmill to Hell: http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 2 - Technology to the Rescue: http://www.resilience.org/stor...

- SNAKE OIL: Chapter 1 - This is What Peak Oil Looks Like:http://www.resilience.org/stor...